Showing posts with label David Paterson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Paterson. Show all posts

Sunday, July 05, 2009

Sunday Summer Musings

As regular readers of this blog have noted to me via email, I have posted infrequently in recent weeks. Although I’ve conducted podcast interviews with interesting subjects and have more scheduled over the summer, personal matters have required my attention. Hence, I haven’t been able to comment on recent events. Some of you have emailed asking if I’m doing OK. Rest assured, I am fine and this has only been a temporary respite from blogging. Like many of you, I have been following current events both nationally and internationally as well as locally in my home state. A few observations and thoughts below:
  • Curiously, the lack of coherent conservative political opposition is undermining the progressive cause and reinforcing the Washington/Wall Street axis. President Obama and much of the Democratic Party appears content to remain risk averse, hoard political capital as “Blue Dog” Democrats such as Evan Bayh and Max Caucus continue to be whores for the private insurance industry and the moneyed interests. With the Republican Party in disarray, the Obama administration has no incentive to go beyond the political fifty-yard line and transform America from a corporate national security state to a society that facilitates broad based prosperity for real entrepreneurs and wage earners. Meanwhile, the corporate press falsely portrays the national debate as between the “liberal” Obama administration and “mainstream” critics. Sadly, and it pains me to write this, enablers of America’s modern gilded age have merely hit the “reset button” with the Obama administration. I like Al Franken and I’m happy he will finally take his rightful place as Minnesota’s junior senator. But that magical sixtieth vote will not transform the landscape all that much. As Illinois Senator Dick Durbin candidly put it earlier this year, the banks “frankly own the place.”
  • In my opinion, Bernie Madoff is a scapegoat for the crimes on Wall Street. Madoff will spend the rest of his days in prison and deservedly so. I have no sympathy for him. However, the looters at Goldman Sachs, Citicorp and A.I.G. are just as guilty if not more so than Madoff. Yet they’re benefiting from billions of dollars subsidized by taxpayers as state and municipal governments barely hang on. It seems to me that Madoff as the public face of Wall Street’s crimes is enabling plutocrats in Washington and the financial services industry to avoid accountability and needed restructuring of our economy. Two decades ago, Michael Milken became the public face of Wall Street’s excess and nothing changed. If Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and the administration’s senior economic advisor, Timothy Geithner have their way, the Wall Street/Washington axis will continue to conduct business as usual. Their so-called “reforms” are cosmetic only and will not facilitate the systemic change our economy so desperately needs.
  • Enablers of the Washington/Wall Street axis are the cozy relationship between “journalists” and the lobbyists of corporate America. The recent news about the Washington Post selling access to corporate lobbyists simply reinforces what the American people have sensed in their guts for a long time: the “truth” is purchased, packaged and sold. Americans across the political spectrum know this intuitively and that as much as anything explains the decline of traditional media in the Internet age. To some degree this is regrettable because nobody exposed local corruption better than those old time city newspapers with reporters mining sources among the worker bees at city hall. Also, the Internet and blogs are hardly a panacea of journalism. Regardless, the Washington/Wall Street access can only be broken from outside and that means we the people have to become our own journalists.
  • It seems that the real conflict in Iran is between their security forces and factions among the clerics. The valiant protesters are really pawns for the real power struggle-taking place. Even so, hopefully the people who bravely stood up and risked their lives represent a window into the future. Presently though, Iran appears poised to become more of a traditional military dictatorship and less of a theocracy. How events in Iran will transform the Middle East is hard to say but there does appear to be a thaw in American/Syrian relations. The State Department has hoped to exploit potential rifts between Iran and Syria for years even as the Bush administration behaved like a bull in a China shop and the fallout from Iran's presidential election has given the West at least a modest diplomatic opening.
  • I’m gratified American troops are finally withdrawing from Iraq and that Vice President Biden has advised the Iraqis we won’t be expending more blood and treasure to police sectarian violence. Sadly, those resources will likely be redeployed in the Afghanistan/Pakistan theater. Unless vigorous diplomacy with NATO powers or the upcoming summit in Russia can facilitate greater logistical support, an overextended American military is more vulnerable than ever to the burdens of empire maintenance in the name of national defense.
  • I can’t begin to articulate my disgust over events in Albany with the state senate. Much of my activism last year was dedicated to enabling Democrats to finally take the majority. Painfully, their political incompetence as well as Governor David Paterson’s feckless leadership has effectively ended those reformist aspirations from 2006 when Eliot Spitzer was elected New York’s chief executive. With respect to who controls the state senate there is the 2010 census at stake and that means repercussions for the House of Representatives as well the power dynamic in Albany. For the people of this state it’s not just about reform or which party controls Albany. It’s being able to earn a living wage, afford healthcare, have access to affordable housing and good public schools. Unfortunately, New York's political leadership has shown that the Big Apple is a Banana Republic. Hopefully, the chaos between Democrats and Republicans will strengthen the leverage of New York’s Workers Family Party as they represent the interests of New York’s struggling wage earners. Now more than ever Democrats need the support of the WFP and they have much work to do to earn it. As for Eliot Spitzer, tempermentally flawed as he is, I would gladly take him back and would even be willing to pay an "escort tax" to make it happen!

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Saturday Night Ramblings

I’ve taken a needed break from blogging these past few days. Rather than post a topic oriented essay this evening I just have a few random thoughts rattling in my head:
  • President Obama used his bully pulpit today to promote credit card reform legislation currently making its way through congress. Obama’s YouTube fireside chat contained echoes of Vice President Biden’s Chief Economist Jared Bernstein. How I wish Bernstein had more influence than Tim Geithner and Larry Summers.
  • I concur with New York Times columnist Bob Herbert’s response to the so-called good news of “only” losing half a million jobs in April. I very much fear the corporate media and body politic will become complacent as long as the stock market continues to rally. Obama is too politically savvy to declare “mission accomplished” but his administration is kidding itself if they believe we have turned the corner.
  • Obama’s rhetoric is spot on but his deeds remain Wall Street centric. I have no faith in these so-called stress tests for the banks. My hunch is that the Obama administration is hoping to produce another “bubble” by restoring faith in our financial institutions with fuzzy math. Perhaps Obama is rationalizing that he would use a future bubble responsibly and invest in programs with long term returns for the public such as education, energy, health care and infrastructure. There are two risks with this approach. Risk number one is that the markets expose the fuzzy math just as they revealed the banks balance sheets as phony last year. Should that occur, as Paul Krugman noted in his recent column, Obama’s credibility will be vaporized and so will his ambitious agenda. Risk number two is that the Geithner/Summers plutocratic juggernaut successfully create their phony bubble, we become complacent and have another epic crash.
  • As New Yorkers know by now, Governor David Paterson and Senate Democrats finally agreed to a deal that bails out the MTA without draconian cuts in service and massive far hikes. This was achieved without any Republican votes. In the short term this good for New Yorkers struggling to keep their heads above water in this economy. Long term however there still is no viable plan to reform the MTA’s corrupt cronyism and culture of looting that New Yorkers always end up subsidizing.
  • As for Governor Paterson, he is sadly not ready for prime time. Paterson is reactive and constantly shifting his positions. His hapless performance is taking its toll as polls now show that voters prefer Eliot Spitzer who resigned in disgrace last year. Whereas Paterson navigates Albany’s tough terrain like a baby seal, Spitzer often seemed as if his sphincter muscle was on fire. Paterson is bullied and Spitzer tried to be a bully. Neither demonstrated leadership ability as New York 's chief executive. Hence, not enough has been accomplished since the Democrats retook the governor’s mansion in November 2006. Paterson still has time to turn things around but like most New York Democrats I’m hoping for a primary challenge. I’ve never been a fan of Attorney General Andrew Cuomo but as of now would support him over Paterson.
  • America owes a debt of gratitude to Supreme Court Justice David Souter for not retiring under President George W. Bush. I vividly recall when Souter was nominated by the first President Bush to replace Justice William Brennan in 1990. It was my senior year in college and one of my friends compared him to Robert Bork. Instead Souter turned out to be judicious and sensible. Conservatives chafed that Souter betrayed their cause. In my opinion, Souter presided as a traditional conservative jurist who respected precedent and didn’t overreact to the passions of the moment. Simply put, Souter didn’t betray conservatism. Conservatism’s metamorphosis to radicalism betrayed people like Souter. They wanted Souter to be a radical right wing activist and he opted to respect the Constitution instead.
  • I first became aware of Speaker Nancy Pelosi over a decade ago because of her diligent support of human rights in China over corporate interests. I appreciated her stolid advocacy of human rights in China and have long admired her staunch unapologetic liberalism.
  • Today, the Washington Post reported that a top Pelosi aide attended a briefing in 2003 in which it was made clear that waterboarding and other harsh techniques were used. In recent weeks there have been numerous leaks to the press about what Pelosi knew with respect to "enhanced interrogation" techniques or torture as decent people refer to it. The CIA has apparently targeted Pelosi for damaging leaks just as they previously went after the Bush Administration during the Valerie Plame controversy as well as the who knew what about WMDs in Iraq infighting. One has to wonder if this contributed to Pelosi’s early declaration in 2006 not to investigate the Bush administration, initiate impeachment hearings and her holding back of House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers. Obviously, the Bush administration had plenty of enablers in the Democratic Party for their crimes. If Pelosi was among them she should be held accountable along with other Democratic enablers and we liberal Democrats must insist upon it.
  • Happy Mother's Day to all tomorrow!

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

MTA At DefCon One

The body politic and blogosphere is focused on President Obama's 2nd prime time press conference, Tim Geithner's "plan" to resolve the banking crisis and the ongoing budget debate in Washington. Presently, my immediate concern with respect to the economy is local. This morning, the MTA board is planning to vote and ratify a budget with burdensome hikes and draconian service cuts for commuters to address a $1.2 billion deficit. That figure represents only what is known as it may well be even higher.

Former MTA Chairman, Richard Ravitch had earned broad based support with a plan to address the crisis fairly and spread the pain. Our "leadership" in Albany however has opted to punt. Senate Majority leader Malcolm Smith was especially feckless. Sadly, after initially supporting the Ravitch plan, Governor Paterson has opted to punt as well.

New York State's economy relies heavily on the infrastructure of New York City's transit system. If our leaders in Albany truly believe it makes sense to focus on the state's overall budget while abandoning New York City, they're in for a rude awakening.

Under the MTA's proposal, base fares would jump to $2.50, and monthly MetroCards would rise to $103. So that extra $20 the Obama administration has allocated in our payroll taxes is effectively consumed. Even worse, subway lines and bus routes will be eliminated in all five boroughs. Eight bus lines and one subway line will be eliminated in Queens alone.

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has garnered substantial headlines for his efforts to recover A.I.G.'s bonus money. If he somehow identified a pretext to use his authority to resolve the MTA budget crisis, I would eagerly sign up to help elect him governor.

During the subway strike in December 2005, my Brooklyn-Manhattan commute was on foot. Now that the weather is warming up, I'm tempted do that again!

Friday, March 20, 2009

Malcom Smith's MTA Folly

While the country obsesses over AIG bonuses and false populists in Washington feign outrage, a moment of truth for New Yorkers is soon upon us. After years of rampant cronyism and grotesque mismanagement, the Mass Transit Authority (“MTA”) is poised to stick it to struggling New Yorkers with an obscene fare hike to make up for their $1.2 billion budget deficit. Even before the current economic crisis, the MTA chronically illustrated state government at its worst. Now with New York City residents either out of work or living paycheck to paycheck, subway fares are poised to increase to $2.50 per ride combined with massive service cuts.

Governor David Paterson’s stewardship has largely been feckless but at least he’s tried to lead credibly on this issue. The same can be said of Assembly leader Sheldon Silver whom I typically despise. A commission chaired by former MTA Chairman Richard Ravitch recently proposed a reasonable payroll tax and tolls with respect to the East River and Harlem River bridges to spread the pain fairly. Two of the “three men in a room,” Paterson and Silver, signed onto Ravitch’s plan as did the most zealous subway riders advocacy group, the Straphangers Campaign.

The third member of the Albany governing triumvirate however, Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, has not contributed to facilitating a credible resolution to the crisis. Instead he initially proposed a plan that was rightly lambasted by the New York Daily News earlier this week. Today, the New York Daily News is reporting that Smith is poised to delay a comprehensive bailout for the MTA and focus on the state budget. Smith self-righteously proclaims,
"If we can get everything done, I am sure we will, but there's 19 million people that are concerned about that budget,"
Hence, the MTA is only days away from imposing their draconian “doomsday” budget and New York City residents will reap the economic whirlwind. I don’t dispute the importance of the state’s overall budget. But that doesn’t excuse Smith’s grotesque failure of leadership. Especially when you have a proposed solution by the Ravitch Commission that spreads the pain judiciously.

Although I applaud Senator Smith's recent efforts to to make the legislative process in Albany more transparent, his callous disregard for New York City residents is unacceptable. Click here to contact Senator Smith’s office and urge him to adopt the Ravitch proposal immediately.

Friday, January 23, 2009

New York, New York

Unless hermetically sealed in a dungeon you know that Governor David Paterson finally named Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to succeed Hillary Clinton. First let me address the fallout with respect to the disastrous public relations courtship between Caroline Kennedy, Governor David Paterson and his staff. Both Paterson and Kennedy are diminished from the entire process.

I never believed Kennedy was appropriate for the position or capable of withstanding the rough and tumble of New York politics. To her credit, Kennedy has been a citizen advocate for progressive causes and survived the public relations goldfish bowl far better than several other Kennedys who became entangled in scandals. Yet it was quite apparent during her “listening tour” that Kennedy did not have the right stuff.

Furthermore, Kennedy appeared to project a sense of entitlement about the position that was off putting. Other New York dynastic political figures such as Robert Kennedy, Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo repeatedly demonstrated toughness, the willingness to work for their support and the resilience to bounce back from self-inflicted wounds. Without those skills a politician has no shot in the unique New York media cauldron. Sadly, Kennedy’s image took a beating and this Camelot icon will never be looked upon the same way again. She asked for it but it’s regrettable nonetheless.

Putting Kennedy’s flaws aside however, Governor Paterson’s administration was graceless in publicly throwing her underneath the bus after she asked to no longer be considered. It was bad enough that Paterson appeared disorganized, narcissistic and inept during his own selection process. Even worse was his staff’s eagerness to kick Kennedy while she was down in order to salvage Paterson’s reputation. Yes, the New York Times reported that Kennedy had personal issues with respect to taxes and a household employee. It's also true that her public performances these past few weeks were uneven at best.

However, the New York media was already piling on and pouring more salt in Kennedy’s wounds only served to make Paterson appear small. It seems inevitable now that Paterson will be challenged in the 2010 Democratic primary. If Eliot Spitzer was a vindictive bull in a china shop then the previous 24 hours has exposed Paterson as a feckless barking dog with no teeth that cowardly refused to let Kennedy depart the stage with any semblance of dignity. It was Paterson’s fault the process with Kennedy went as far as it did in the first place. A putrid demonstration of leadership at a time when accountability and competence are needed most.

With respect to Representative Gillibrand, I am neither enthusiastic nor gnashing my teeth. I would have preferred a genuine liberal advocate such as state Senator Liz Krueger or Congressman Jerrold Nadler who unflinchingly opposed the Bush Administration’s worst civil liberties abuses. Gillibrand is a respectable choice but she’s no liberal and won’t be a counterweight to Chuck Schumer who is in bed with the banking industry, and also paved the way for Michael Mukasey to serve as George W. Bush’s Attorney General in spite of being pro-torture.

In 2006, I phonebanked for Gillibrand when she challenged four term Republican incumbent John Sweeney in New York’s conservative upstate 20th congressional district. Naturally, Gillibrand reflects the cultural mores of her upstate conservative constituents with respect to guns and is a member in good standing of the Blue Dog Coalition in the House of Representatives. Electing centrists such as Gillibrand was the price for securing a majority in the House and Gillibrand does have her good points too.

Gillibrand is a strong advocate of legislation to reinforce the National Instant Criminal Background Check System Improvement Act to keep guns away from criminals. She also courageously supports same-sex marriage and that is not an easy position for any upstate legislator to assume. Gillibrand has been a reliable supporter of abortion rights, stem cell research, and the Children's Health and Medicare Protection Act. On fiscal matters she opposed the TARP bailout, supports extending the Bush 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and has a record of opposing Social Security privatization. In other words, Gillibrand has a centrist record. Pretty good on most social and civil libertarian issues but fiscally too conservative for my taste.

Gillibrand’s challenge now is persuade downstate urban voters like myself that she can represent the entire state’s diverse interests and views. Pro gun control congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy has indicated she will challenge Gillibrand in the Democratic 2010 primary. McCarthy as New Yorkers may recall first entered congress following the tragic shooting of her husband in 1993.

I’m pro gun control but will make my decision on whom to support over a wide spectrum of issues while evaluating Gillibrand’s performance. Robert Harding over at the Albany Project provides a useful guide about gun control with respect to upstate/downstate perspectives and Gillibrand in a post today that is worth reading.

Hopefully, there will be several Democratic primary challengers vigorously competing to provide options for both governor as well as senator. Party establishment figures often prefer the banality of “unity” but I’ve always believed that intra-party competition is healthy. Two years is a lifetime in politics and that is doubly true given our current economy. In the meantime, New York desperately needs both Paterson to quickly get his act together and Gillibrand to grow into her new job with dispatch. Otherwise New Yorkers will need viable options to consider as replacements.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

NY Gov. Dave Paterson Solicits Netroots About the Budget

New York as well as many other states are in the midst of a fiscal crisis. Liberal New York bloggers like me have urged Governor Paterson to put forward a budget that shares the pain fairly. Time is short because the deficit needs to be reduced by April 1st of 2009. New York's projected deficit is $15 billion this year and $36 billion over the next two years.

To his credit, Governor Paterson is soliciting the opinions of the progressive netroots community over at Daily Kos as well as The Albany Project. If you're a New York State resident, I urge you to set up you're own account with The Albany Project. It's a terrific opportunity to review the ideas and concerns of other progressive New Yorkers as well as contribute to the conversation. Also, The Albany Project is an outstanding resource for information and activism to shape the debate in Albany in a more reformist minded and progressive direction.

It is also gratifying to know that Paterson respects our community and is not merely operating under the traditional "three men in a room" formula. The netroots through The Albany Project as well as the New York Workers Family Party have helped elect many progressive minded state legislators the previous two election cycles. Obviously we have earned clout as Governor Paterson is using the Internet to solicit our views.

I've been critical of Paterson regarding the budget and his flirtation with Caroline Kennedy as Hillary Clinton's replacement. If he is willing to engage however, as good citizens we should respond with respect and candor. We don't yet know how much federal aid New York will receive from the incoming Obama administration. In the meantime, tough decisions need to be made as the budget is vetted through the legislature and Governor Paterson is asking for ideas. So don't just sit on the sidelines and complain. Pitch in and help!

Sunday, December 21, 2008

New York's New World

For my home state, Governor David Paterson's budget is a window into the future. Simply put, we are witnessing what happens when New York State ceases to be the financial capital of the world. At the moment the world doesn't really have one as the global economy sorts through massive wreckage. Truthfully, the era of financial centers concentrated in western port cities such as New York or London is a relic.

This had long been been predicted because information technology makes it possible to outsource back office functions remotely and utilize cheap labor. Why pay for New York City real estate and labor when a trader can just as easily play with other people's money from a computer in Dubai? However, until the recent economic catastrophe Wall Street stubbornly hung onto its symbolic trappings as the center of the universe.

As a result, Albany could count on revenues generated from Wall Street to finance union pensions, government services, medicaid spending, corporate welfare, our prison industrial complex and so forth. The financial services industry also generated millions of jobs in our region from stock brokers to janitors. Hence, Wall Street's titans were able to leverage their influence with power brokers such as New York State's senior Senator Charles Schumer.

As many of you know, the New York Times recently profiled the intimate relationship between Wall Street and Schumer. Liberals are justifiably outraged at Schumer's enthusiastic pandering to Wall Street's desire for excessive deregulation and lax oversight in exchange for campaign donations for himself and his party. Instead of a Democrat standing up for working people we elected an enabler of our economic meltdown.

In fairness to Schumer, any New York senator would have to some degree catered to this industry's interests just as Joe Biden championed the banks and credit card industry while representing Delaware. All politics is local as Tip O'Neill used to say and even Wall Street enemy Eliot Spitzer raked in contributions from the financial sector during his 2006 campaign for Governor. That's where the action was that created jobs for New Yorkers and filled the state's coffers.

However, Schumer's excessive pandering to Wall Street has facilitated a calamity for the working people in New York he claims to represent and helped wreck the global economy with it. Figures such as Clinton Treasury Secretary and Wall Street powerhouse Robert Rubin were never Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Today New York is confronted with a $1.7 billion 2008 shortfall and a projected 2009-10 deficit of $13.7 billion while Governor Paterson promotes an "obesity tax." Important government services such as healthcare, education and emergency first responders will take a hit. And New York's Mass Transit Authority ("MTA") with its chronic incompetence in good and bad times will impose painful rate hikes and service cuts in 2009 to make up for its own steep revenue shortfall. As always the working stiffs are hit the hardest.

The pain is no fun and hardships abound for New Yorkers as our manufacturing industry was sucking wind well before Lehman Brothers collapsed, AIG was bailed out and Bernard L. Madoff became a household name. Like all New Yorkers I'm feeling the pain too but thankfully still have a job.

Yet even during this challenging period an opportunity exists. Necessity is a mother to invention and New York needs to reinvent itself. Just as oil is a dangerous narcotic that has arrested the development of petro states the financial services sector and manufacturing industry have undermined New York's ability to retool for the 21st century. Such innovation requires leadership and vision.

Whatever critique one may have with the specifics of Paterson's hardship budget he is at least showing leadership by not ducking the tough choices. Personally though I am dismayed by Paterson's unwillingness to more fairly distribute the pain. He should worry less about taxing millionaires and instead embrace New York's Working Families Party approach of shared sacrifice.

My question though is what sort of people does Paterson listen to as the corporate private sector vies for his favor in New York's new world? Alas, Paterson's consideration of Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate because of her ability to raise millions from friends such as billionaire Mayor Mike Bloomberg is not encouraging.

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Memo To David Paterson: Liz Krueger For U.S. Senate

The jostling among New York State's political heavy weights is underway to replace Hillary Clinton. New York State governor David Paterson has opted not to select himself. Instead names ranging from Brooklyn Congresswoman Nydia Vasquez (my district) to Suffolk County Executive Thomas Suozzi are mentioned. There is also Westchester Congresswoman Nita Lowrey who stepped aside eight years ago to allow Hillary Clinton a clear path to the Senate.

Many understandably want Clinton replaced with another woman. Naturally, Patterson hopes to select someone who can prevail in a statewide race. However, one criteria I'm not reading or hearing enough about is that Hillary Clinton's replacement should be an unapologetic champion of working people, the poor, high quality education to all segments of society as well as universal healthcare. In other words I would like Hillary Clinton's replacement to be a genuine liberal. Hence, I'm hoping Governor Paterson will consider appointing New York State Senator Liz Krueger.

Krueger represents New York State's 26th district covering Manahattan. Many will object that Krueger is not electable beyond her Manhattan constituency. However, Krueger's tenure as Chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) helped Democrats erode and finally overtake the Republican decades long majority. Indeed, to become a State Senator she defeated an icon of Albany's entrenched power in Roy Goodman.

Longtime readers of the Intrepid Liberal Journal may recall a podcast interview I had with Krueger early last year. Prior to her election Krueger was a longtime advocate for affordable housing. Upon her election Krueger has been a steadfast champion of reform and transparency inside Albany's corrupt culture. Given the challenging times we live in Krueger is the right person to replace Hillary Clinton. Liberal, feminist, intelligent and compassionate. Once in the U.S. Senate I have no doubt Krueger would reassure all New Yorkers that she is an effective advocate for working people in our state.

If you're a New York resident, please click here to email Governor Paterson's office and request that he consider appointing Liz Krueger to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate.
Update: As an anonymous commenter corrently pointed out, Krueger lost to Roy Goodman in her first race in 2000. There was a recount and Goodman prevailed. Which I actually noted in the introductory text to my podcast with Krueger early last year. But this time was not careful and I regret the error. Goodman was stunned by the defeat and joined the Bloomberg administration. After scaring an entrenched icon of the Albany establishment into retirement from the state senate, Krueger was able to prevail in a special election.